Four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, this war continues not because peace is impossible — but because the conditions that enable aggression have not been fully dismantled.
This anniversary is a moment to honor Ukraine’s extraordinary resilience and sacrifice — and a stark reminder that the continuation of this war is rooted not only in violence on the battlefield but in the economic, political, and diplomatic structures that sustain Russia’s war machine.
Russia’s war economy is strained and brittle. Its survival depends on external lifelines: energy revenues not fully embargoed, access to Western finance that has not been fully cut, and Western-made components still flowing into its military-industrial complex. This war is sustained not by inevitability, but by persistent gaps in enforcement, corporate complicity, and strategic hesitation.
At the same time, this conflict is not solely about Ukraine’s future. It is a fundamental test of what remains of a rule-based international order: whether aggression can be rewarded; whether borders can be rewritten by force; and whether international law and human dignity still matter. Authoritarian and chauvinist actors around the world watch what happens next — and the signals sent now will shape peace and conflict for decades to come.
Recent reports that senior U.S. and Russian officials discussed a massive economic cooperation framework — proposed on terms that could damage Ukraine’s own sovereignty and security without Ukraine’s full participation — underscore a deep risk: that economic deals are being contemplated to reward and profit from Russia’s aggression. Future American economic and commercial relations with Russia must be predicated instead on a just settlement that preserves Ukraine’s freedom and security.
Ukraine did not start this war. Russia’s imperial aggression did. And any pursuit of peace or economic cooperation that fails to center Ukraine, respects no sovereign borders, or rewards aggression — even implicitly — undermines the principles of justice and international order that must define any lasting settlement.
Peace cannot be separated from justice — and justice cannot be negotiated on terms that reward aggression. Any peace process must be human-centred, anchored in human dignity, international law, and the rights of those most affected — above transactional bargaining between great powers.
What Must Happen Now
To transform pressure into peace — and to deliver what millions of Ukrainians demand and deserve — decisive action is required based on these principled objectives:
Ground peace in human rights and justice: peace must protect people, uphold justice, restore Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and avoid coerced compromises that entrench instability or reward aggression.
Reject territorial concessions and asymmetric constraints: Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders cannot be compromised without exposing communities to further occupation, repression, and mass atrocities.
Discipline the war economy to deliver a final blow: Russia’s war capability is sustained by:
● access to Western finance and energy revenues,
● supply of dual-use technology,
● and Western corporate presence whose tax flows and operations underpin Russia’s fiscal capacity.
These lifelines must be severed through stronger sanctions, strict enforcement, embargoes on fossil fuel revenues, and accountability for corporate complicity.
Ensure peace negotiations are co-created with Ukraine: a just peace cannot be negotiated about Ukraine without Ukraine as an equal partner, including its civil society and victim-led organizations.
Expand support to ensure negotiations are approached from strength, not coercion: This includes accelerated military, economic, and humanitarian support, as well as long-term security guarantees and integration with European and transatlantic architecture.
The Stakes Beyond Ukraine
This war is shaking the remaining foundations of international order and its outcome will have an historic impact on the future of the international community. If Russia’s aggression is allowed to persist through partial measures — if its war economy is left intact — the global message will be clear: that revisionist ambition and brute force can pay off. That is an outcome not just catastrophic for Ukraine, but dangerous for democracies and sovereign nations everywhere.
Russia’s war economy is weak — and the world can finish what it started. With decisive and sustained pressure, the remaining pillars of Russia’s ability to wage war can be shattered, delivering what Ukrainians have fought for and what peace-seeking people everywhere deserve.
Peace will not come from deals struck behind closed doors or from expediency that sacrifices principle. It will come from a strategy of sustained pressure, genuine inclusion of Ukraine, and unwavering commitment to justice.
Peace requires justice.
Security requires accountability.
And lasting peace requires the full dismantling of the structures that enabled this war.